It ain't just Covid-19, stupid

If you want a happy ending, that depends, of course, on where you stop your story... Orson Welles

 

I would like to know how many deaths, for whatever reason, there were each day in 2019.
Not including accidental deaths.

 

And what would the significance be of the death figures of non-COVID 19 deaths in 2019? The daily death figures for 2020 would be virtually the same as 2019's due to heart failure, diabetes, COPD, stroke, Alzheimers, influenza etc. On top of the non-accident daily death count in 2020 we must ADD the daily death count for COVID 19.

 

1. Heart disease deaths per year: 635,260 Percent of total deaths: 23.1 percent

2. Cancer deaths per year: 598,038 Percent of total deaths: 21.7 percent

3. Accidents (unintentional injuries) deaths per year: 161,374 Percent of total deaths: 5.9 percent

4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases deaths per year: 154,596 Percent of total deaths: 5.6 percent

5. Stroke deaths per year: 142,142 Percent of total deaths: 5.18 percent

6. Alzheimer’s disease deaths per year: 116,103 Percent of total deaths: 4.23 percent

7. Diabetes deaths per year: 80,058 Percent of total deaths: 2.9 percent

8. Influenza and pneumonia deaths per year: 51,537 Percent of total deaths: 1.88 percent

9. Kidney disease deaths per year: 50,046 Percent of total deaths: 1.8 percent

10. Suicide deaths per year: 44,965 Percent of total deaths: 1.64 percent

11. Septicemia deaths per year: 38,940 Percent of total deaths: 1.42 percent

12. Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis deaths per year: 38,170 Percent of total deaths: 1.39 percent

totals 76 % so there are more

 

Thank you for posting those figures carp. They only go to show that our country has so many compromised individuals that are at the top of the list to contract COVID 19. I'm sure we all have friends & family that are vulnerable and wish that everyone would do all they could to prevent the spread & needless death.

The fact that there are so many devastating long term effects even if you survive COVID is so down-played.

 

Well AZ is showing up 4th in New Cases today. It seems the best way to lower those figures is to stop testing immediately. The former CSA has 8 of the Top dozen in new cases, so much for the summer heat is going to kill it.

 

I can't speak for pegmih, but I do know there are a lot of people who 1)believe the death rate from CV is low compared to other causes of death so why sweat it or 2)you can't tell me what to do -- it's my life to risk. Somehow this seems involved with defending the realm of Trump.

During my 70+ years on this earth the Gov't has tried to protect me from things I could not reasonably protect myself -- wars, infectious diseases (NIH, FDA, WHO, etc), automobile deaths (NHTSA), airline (FAA, TSA, etc.), etc. Many of these agencies, along with our elected officials, enacted laws to protect us all. Did I like all this regulation which restricted my freedoms? No, not al -- as an "invincible" teenager I didn't need a seat belt because I wasn't going to have an accident, etc. But as friends got killed in auto accidents, etc. I accepted that sometimes we all have to conform to certain things for the greater good -- things like making all kids get vaccinated to protect my kids, smoking restrictions protect everyone from the second hand smoke of others, etc. I see CV in the same light -- it's a disease we can reduce the impact of by taking certain actions. The facts the scientists believe to be true today indicate 1)everyone needs to wear a mask when around others, 2)everyone should try to maintain a distance from others in public, and 3)anyone with symptoms should quarantine and cooperate with the health dept tracing who they've been in recent contact. If we ALL do those three things the deaths will be minimized, businesses will be able to reopen with some restrictions, etc. Seems like a minimal inconvenience compared to free-for-all that's going on today. Once a vaccine is available and the majority of the population is vaccinated we can go back to normal.

I'm normally pretty tolerant of the rights of others to do their own thing, but not with CV since their thing can quickly become my thing whether I like it or not. Disease is like that -- when I was a kid polio was infectious (spread by coughs & sneezes) and the consequences often deadly. I plan on living a while longer and don't want that cut short by the arrogance of others regarding CV. So, for those of you who are too selfish to care about others, those that feel everyone is responsible for only themselves, those too partisan to cooperate for the betterment of all, I suggest you go to as many Trump rallies, concerts, crowded stores as you can and as soon as possible -- no masks, shout, hug, mingle closely. It's imperative you expose yourself to CV as soon as possible so the gene pool can be cleansed of your presence.

 

IC wrote:
"So, for those of you who are too selfish to care about others, those that feel everyone is responsible for only themselves, those too partisan to cooperate for the betterment of all, I suggest you go to as many Trump rallies, concerts, crowded stores as you can and as soon as possible -- no masks, shout, hug, mingle closely. It's imperative you expose yourself to CV as soon as possible so the gene pool can be cleansed of your presence."

I wish I could triple like your above quoted statement! There'll be anywhere from 20,000 to 60,000 at the 6/20 Oklahoma rally and around 13,000 at the 6/23 Dream City Church rally in Phoenix. Wouldn't it be a hoot if Trump decides to gather these huge groups and then just gives his diatribes via ZOOM?

 

Great responses to peg's questions gang. I started to pull up the stats but a doctor's visit was pressing me on time. The simple reality is her question had no correlation to a logical explanation of trump's stupid claim made yesterday. With that out of the way, perhaps peg will stop back and explain how a seemingly smart woman can be enamored with moronic statements this president makes on at least a weekly basis? Although i have to admit virtually all of those on the right (save a couple of the more stellar) act as if they didn't hear it, didn't read it, or simply blow it off as "owning the libs."

So how about it peg...if we just quit testing, is that COVID19 thing over?

 

This pretty much sums it up this morning...

• On Tuesday, Arizona, Florida and Texas all reported their largest one-day increases in new cases.
• Officials in Tulsa, Okla., are pleading with President Trump to cancel his indoor rally set for Saturday, or move it outdoors, saying the state is already experiencing a spike in infections.
• Surprise Mayor Skip Hall says he's tested positive for COVID-19, the president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, said yesterday that he, his wife and two aides had tested positive for Covid-19... Covid doesn't discriminate by one's status.

The following chart compares the U.S. to a contiguous 16-country region of Western Europe with a nearly identical population. It's the number of deaths per day, not the cumulative death count.


The combined death count in these 16 European countries (about 121,000) remains higher than in the U.S. (about 117,000). But at the current pace, the U.S. toll will be higher by next week, so we have something the MAGA-idiot can crow how he's made us number one -- the biggest ever!

 

Just got off Facebook where there were several news stories where now Pence is claiming "game over." Then i went to The Resurgent website where they were touting his brilliance as he explained there were "minor increases" in a couple of states but they were mild. That site used to allow comments, but they stopped them as people would destroy their writers because when they wrote patently absurd lies, they would get eviscerated with facts. Now they can just say stuff, no rebuttal.

It's one of the reasons i am frustrated with this site. Sun City is filled with rightie, tightie whities who should have the courage of their convictions to come on here and debunk the stuff we are posting. They don't, they can't and the won't. The statistics don't lie. I have no idea if we are on the brink of a second wave or still muddling through the first wave. Either way, before years end we will have lost 250,000 or more US citizens and that is tragic. What makes it worse is had we (the president) acted when he was first told of it (January), we could have been so much better off.

 

The short, unpleasant answer to the first question is that the U.S. has not even gotten through the current first wave of infections. Since peaking at around 31,000 average new daily cases on April 10, new daily cases dropped to around 22,000 on average by mid-May and have stayed almost steady over the last four weeks. Nationwide more than 800 people continue to die day after day.


Prominent forecasters are predicting a slow but steady accumulation of additional deaths between now and Oct. 1 — more than 56,000 by one estimate, around 90,000 by one another.

"We really never quite finished the first wave," says Dr. Ashish Jha, a professor of global health at Harvard University. "And it doesn't look like we are going to anytime soon."

SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS
Tracking The Pandemic: Are Coronavirus Cases Rising Or Falling In Your State?
That said, forecasters say, we could still be due for a true second wave later in the year, citing growing evidence that colder weather could lead to a surge in coronavirus cases.

 

More cheery news...

Researchers at Arizona State University expect Arizona’s total number of COVID-19 cases to double by mid-July, if not sooner. According to an update that ASU’s COVID modeling team released on Wednesday (today), Arizona will hit 80,000 cases sometime between late June and July 15.

Ducey imposed a stay-at-home order that was allowed it to expire entirely on May 30, Ducey saying Arizona had met federal criteria for the first phase of reopening.

The modeling team disagreed, writing in its report that Arizona hadn’t met U.S. Centers for Disease Control criteria when Ducey lifted the restrictions, and that Ducey’s administration failed to develop a comprehensive plan for adequate testing or measures that would slow the spread of the virus.

As of June 10, the state still did not have a plan for additional “non-pharmaceutical intervention,” or NPIs, such as social distancing, masks, school closures or stay-at-home orders, “despite strong evidence of increased community transmission.” The modeling team also estimated that, without additional non-pharmaceutical intervention, the state is likely to exceed hospital care capacity.

 

Well Governor Dopey has realized that the virus is causing a spike in cases about two weeks after his shelter in place order expired and he did nothing as bars and restaurants were packed in Tempe and Snobsdale. Of course in true Rethuglican style he is deferring to cities to respond to this increase. No mandate for masks or shelter in place as, God forbid, we should die to save our economy.

It’s time to remove Republicans from office and put adults in their place as our lives depend on it because they do depend on it.

On a personal note, welcome back to posting CM.

 

The thing that make no sense is Ducey's refusal to mandate mask wearing. Masks don't affect most businesses and if EVERYONE did it would reduce airborne transmission by over 90%! Where masks are impractical or create safety hazards other measures could be taken (plexiglass shields, etc.). But since we have a lot of "you can't tell me what to do" jerks in the population it has to be mandated -- just suggesting it gives us what we have now.

 

Although Ducey won't mandate mandatory masks, cities can, and they can enforce it. I wonder how many cities are aware of this, and, would they do it if given the option?

 

So, since Ducey gave that control to the cities earlier today, it seems Flagstaff, Tempe, Mesa, Tucson, Tolleson, etc are already moving to do so. But I'm a skeptic -- eg, the mayor of Tucson said she didn't want to ticket violators, she just wants people to do the right thing. If that approach worked it already would have since everyone's heard they should be wearing, and most aren't "doing the right thing." The CV can getting pretty beat up getting kicked down the road -- Trump, to governors, to mayors, to all Arizonans. Like I said in an earlier post -- 7-million citizens in AZ "doing our own thing" -- what can possibly go wrong?

 

It’s basically time to kick ass and take names. Since the beginning of this thing I have said it is like the Black Death, not flea and tick thing but the dynamics of the disease. This was a good part of my Medieval history courses in college and I have reread and delved into this even deeper lately.

Aside from wearing full head crow masks and carrying fragrant flowers (think ring around the rosy), the city fathers of Florence saw how devastating this pandemic was and how it followed trade routes, they shut the city gates and let no one in until they had stayed outside the city for forty days (Quattro) hence the name quarantine. What happened was instead of mortality rates of sixty percent or higher, Florence only suffered about thirty percent.

We opened too early and the young, stupid and self entitled morons running around are now firing this virus up again. Obtuse leaders at the national and State level are only throwing gas on the fire. My personal opinion is that July and August are going to be really ugly from anew case/death standpoint. Obviously spring/summer warm weather is not stopping this virus no matter what President cholesterol butt and Vice President stiffy say. There will be a second wave but the New Year and potential for a third wave about a year from now.

One other thing, this virus will be back in two to three years and will be even nastier than this one, just like the Black Death.

Have a positive day. Those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat.

Dead MAGAs don’t vote.

 

Here is what I have decided after my 50 years of studying history. It is also those who remember history that are condemned to relive it. If you keep it alive it will stay alive. We don't, for example, keep reliving the Civil War because we forgot it.