92...really?

At some point in our lives, we all need to get real and examine where we are, what we are doing and whether whatever we are trying to do is working. For most of us who are retired and living out our remaining years, we tend to become complacent knowing we are where we are and it pretty much is what it is.

If we have reached retirement, we are closer to the end than the beginning. On rare occasions we run across those who never stop pursuing excellence and growth in their lives. They are truly rare. We are, as Elton John sang, all merely candles in the wind. At some point, we all blow out.

Morbid? A bit, but realism and self-examination has always helped me get my head around life's challenges. Today is a sad day for me, but that's for another time. I was just texted a piece of information that was shocking, eye opening and frustrating.

It was 8 simple words and my reaction was immediate, it read: "92 homes sold in Sun City in January." For the casual observer, one might think, "not bad?" For those in the know, the reaction would be much more visceral. You know, like; "what the flock is going on?"

There's been a long standing history of homes sales across the community. It's easily traceable and following the housing market crash of 2009, coming out of it over the past 15 years, we've seen averages hanging around 2000 sales per year; some higher, some lower. The other accepted premise was the winter months recorded higher sales than the really hot summer months. That's leveled off a bit, but again these great winter months (compared to the rest of the frozen tundra around the country), have traditionally given us our highest monthly total sales.

To be clear, it matters, a lot. Because as we look forward to the array of projects scheduled by the RCSC over the next 10 years, it is a huge budgetary number. Golf courses and golf course out-buildings alone are 45 million dollars. That's not even considering the Mountain View and Lakeview remodel.

Everything on the 10 year Preservation and Improvement Fund (PIF) comes from one place, Sun City home sales. As sales drop, revenue drops. We've always calculated sales conservatively. Of late, we bumped those projections to better reflect reality by assuming 1600-1700 per year. Last year was near that number.

Again, for those lost when it comes to figures, 1600 yearly home sales equates to 133 sales per month. 2ooo sales per year equals 166 homes sold monthly. So to be really freaking blunt; "92 homes sold in the month of January SUCKS!" We should be looking at 140 plus homes sold just to be on that conservative average we budget for.

All of which should force the RCSC, the general manager and the board of directors to take a good, long hard look in the mirror and ask themselves: "Is what i am/we are doing working?" Because, after the tumultuous 2024 season of missteps and miscues, telling us what a great year they had, truly does not reflect it in home sales. Not even close.

In fact, it tells us a wholly different story of ill thought-out direction and failure to either execute or at least convince us, and more importantly the buying senior population, Sun City is and should be their place in the sun. Words are cheap, data is the best measuring tool.

If this trend, 92 homes sold in January continues through all of 2025, we'll be looking at under 1200 home sold. That will crush us and our plans for the coming years. Time to take a good long, hard look in the mirror and be honest enough to recognize what is looking back at you/us.

If not, then perhaps Sun City will be just another "candle in the wind."

 

Unfortunately, TOSC only gives is a chance to "Like" or "Reply." I liked this Thread, but it scares the you-know-what out of me. Thank you for alerting many (here and in Sun City Chat on FB) to this news. I will also be posting on my FB group. I won't say anymore because I don't want the Thread to go in the wrong direction. Thank you again.

 

There was a long standing quote many of us were taught, in my case it came from an instructor at the George Meany Center for Labor Relations in Washington DC. They had the luxury and the budget for hiring some truly gifted educators on a wide variety of topics. Continuing education in my career was something i cherished. I took every class i could with a heavy emphasis on communication and leadership.

Organized labor was notorious for perfecting the "no comment" remark. One of the teachers ingrained in those of us who listened (arguably, critical to great communication) that quote went something like this: "If you don't exist in the media, you effectively don't exist." There is question over who gets attributed the remark, but it most likely came from a frustrated reporter who grew tired of hearing, "no comment."

I took that message about the value of a presence in the media to heart. I never turned down an opportunity to respond and in fact found ways to enhance our visibility every chance i got. I came to value the importance of our presence and more importantly the perception of those i wanted to know we not only existed, but we were kicking butt and taking names.

Marketing and branding have long been at the center of every successful organization and company. There is no more, no better example than what DEVCO/Webb did in 1959 through build-out by 1979. They were the essence, the center of the retirement industry revolution. It wasn't by accident. They created the sense of urgency for seniors to want something better...dare i say a "new active way of life."

For the past 21 years, the entirety of my time in Sun City, i have carried that message to each and every organization i have been a part of. Some i/we had great success with; others less. For some odd reason, leadership in top-down run organizations fear too much publicity or exposure. I found just the opposite; it was empowering to be fearless in the face of questions and concerns. Of course, it all starts with whether one has the capacity to know whatever they are doing can be explained logically and rationally to those impacted.

Just this morning, i did a search on the quote about the media. Imagine my surprise (not really) when i saw the results of the search now reflected exactly where we are in this dilemma we are facing. The answer to my question on the quote had a twist and it asked this: "If you don't exist in social media, do you exist at all?" No surprise to me, that is today's real world. Whether we like it or not, once we disappear from the landscape of social media, the question ultimately becomes, what drives us, our sales and our online presence?

It would be curious to do a straight line chart of sales of Sun City homes in relationship to the decision to disappear from social media. Was there a cause and effect? I would argue there's more to the drop in home sales than just that, but i would also argue it had more than a small share of the resulting lower sales.

In the end, it's less important why...than the ultimate question of how we can fix it?

Just OMO...One Man's Opinion.

 

I eagerly await Dave's take on all the red ink from the end of year financials and the far fetched suggestion that the overspending/under-budgeting shortfall was somehow okay because investment income from restricted and unrestricted funds made up from it. It's easy to find and agonize a plethora of would have's and should have's, i find some solace in the one redeeming quality of Sun City we often overlook.

From the day DEVCO walked away, our community documents included an aspect that is still true to this day. The goal was for the RCSC to be debt free. The safeguard of a membership vote for indebtedness of amounts greater than $750k has never been invoked/tested. The RCSC lists their assets in the neighborhood of 150 million dollars. The reality is, they are worth far more than that. Best of all, in spite of the rising costs (and fees), at the end of the day, between the restricted and unrestricted funds there is a cash on hand balance of roughly 58 million dollars.

The community is and always has been perfectly positioned to remain a destination of choice for seniors, whether continuing to work, or not. The key is to be forward thinking and capable of adjusting to changing expectations.

BPearson, Jan 25, 2025

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The community is and always has been perfectly positioned
Same paragraph from "Public Income Statement" thread, words changed up a bit but same meaning.

Total PIF Forecast 2025 - 2034 $115,405,878
10-Year-PIF-Forecast.pdf

How many home sales will cover that? Also it was suggested maybe altering a golf course and adding condos. Another suggestion was expanding SC marketing which is very costly. Then the next statement was "Bigger question, will anyone support the money needed to promote and market Sun City as a destination to consider?" The answer I got from ND was a resounding NO!!!!

I have asked this before with no answer. Why can't we keep what we have comfortable for those who live here now? Why are some so focused on what they want SC to look like after we are dead? We get one shot at life and most of us are in our last third of it. Why worry about what will happen after we die rather than enjoy the time we have left.

Josie P, Jan 25, 2025

 

And another very good reason NOT to spend $14 million dollars on a PAC. I bet we could upgrade Sun Dial for 1/4 that expense, and with those home sales numbers, somebody better take a good hard look at their fiduciary responsibilities!

 

I hate to ask the obvious but how does that compare to home sales in January of 2024?

 

And I assume the BOD will use this info in all future budget planning. Whom was it that said “the medium is the message”.

 

Tom, you’re thinking of Marshall McLuhan.

 

Here's something to consider; I'm seeing more and more signs For Rent than in the past. So what happens when you rent and that person dies? The house doesn't go up for up sale. The landlord only puts out a new For Rent sign!

So as more and more homes are being sold to people who want to become landlords, fewer homes will be sold and the fewer PIF and CIF dollars that will be collected.

Let's face it, homes in SC are a bargain if you just sold your home in California and are now looking for an investment!

 

FYI, valid concern to add to “the list” of considerations for those who create the 2026 Budget, in the best interest of the members!!

 

Unfortunately, the lack of a robust existing marketing strategy hasn’t positioned Sun City favorably for a number of years.

 

Good question John and i was surprised when i saw the answer. If memory serves me, we had just raised the PIF and the CIF at the start of 2024, so this may well be an answer as to one of the reasons why.
Jan. 2025-92.
Jan. 2024-94.
Jan. 2023-104.
Jan. 2022-152.
Jan. 2021-142.
Jan. 2020-123.
Jan. 2019-122.
Anyone who works with data understands one month does not a trend make. I'm far more interested in the year to year data going back over the past 10 years. I'll tell you right now, that is is frightening. I'll post a thread tomorrow and you will see the clear pattern developing. I'll also share my thoughts on how and why it happened beyond just our absence from social media.

 

I’ve heard it mentioned here many times that the PIF isn’t a deterrent to home sales in Sun City. Well, with the lousy economy nationwide, sky high inflation and lackluster home sales nationwide, it’s no wonder that sales are off here. Very few people are first-time buyers that are moving here. They are usually downsizing and moving here once they sell their home wherever they’re moving from. Now add in the PIF and the new CIF and an escalating annual assessment, we don’t look quite as attractive to buyers. It’s time to quit looking back and concentrate on the future. Get the long range plan in place and start listening to what the members are saying

 

I have posted about my nieces and nephews who live in Scottsdale and Phoenix. They have said many timed they would not live here. They are all 50 to 60. 2 have gone back to Oregon to be near their kids and grandkids. The several that stayed are still in Scottsdale and Phoenix because that's where the action is as well as their kids.

I read this quote from a book called Leisureville: Adventures in America's Retirement Utopias about The Villages and Sun City (mostly about The Villages because that’s where his neighbor moved) by Andrew D. Blechman in 2008:

Sun City is a place where seniors choose to live out their final years. They don’t want to plan for ten or twenty years down the road. They might not be around then, and whose future would they be investing in, anyway—the next round of retirees?

For the most part, people who retire to age-segregated communities have already jettisoned their obligations to the community they left behind—the one that invested in their future many years earlier.

 

Same here. Still chat with buddies from former employer.

 

I was shocked at the alarm of a 1% deviation over the past 2 years of properties sold. Historically properties "sold" in January are a reflection of closed escrow generated from contracts written in December which is typically a slower month for sales.

I would like to know: does anyone have the GL detail showing the breakdown between revenue generated from home sales vs PIF revenue generated from changes due to death etc. as those are PIF and CIF generating events. Currently we hae 547 active listings vs 345 1 year ago.

I am experiencing a higher percentage of listing due to aging out of the community, returning to be near chidren or needing a higher level of care. A cursuory high level look indicated many of the people selling now bought at the bottom of the market: 2009 to 2013.

In any event i would love to see a historical detail showing home sales income vs probate and other transfers. Can anyone help?

 

That's the one fly in the ointment when it comes to calculating sales from the MLS records and what the RCSC may take in from whenever there is a 51% change in ownership via inheritance or deed transfers that trigger the payment Cheryl. One could do a lot of digging through the yearly PIF collected (it's posted on their website under financials), but as we know, the PIF has been increased a number of times and so you would need to know the amount and divide it by the total collected...and even then it wouldn't be perfect because there are always delinquents.

I've listened for years as really smart people have argued it didn't matter how high PIF was. Hell back in 2010 there were board members arguing to just bump it up to whatever we wanted. Folly then, perhaps folly still? As Larry pointed out above, between PIF, CIF and the yearly lot assessment, we have to ask, are we too high now?

I know i'd feel a hell of a lot better if we made a concerted effort to make new home owners feel more welcome than we do. Instead, we do the bare minimum.

I'll address some of this tomorrow in a new thread.

 

Since the first of the year we have begun chatting about this with clients we meet at open houses, etc.

We have comments as there is a perception that sun city west is now lower. We explain that it is a per person fee vs here it is up to 2 on deed.

The combined new PIF ($4000) and CIF ($1500) have been the topic of commentary. Just Friday I had a realtor call me. They were in the process of writing an offer on a phase 1, 2br 2ba nicely updated condo we have listed. He wanted to know if I knew what the heck I was talking about because the last time he sold in here it was 3500 and 463. I patiently explained the fees had been increasing in the past couple of years and he was in disbelief. I pointed him to rec center web site to verify that I was correct. The result: they decided not to proceed with the purchase due to the fees. Comments that the fees are increasing at increased velocity and caused concern about the future of the fees.

We could argue that there isn't another community less expensive than ours. We could argue that we have the most amenities.

Another high level look: buyers coming here are commenting on the appearance of aging properties. I point out the revitalization all around us and how malleable these properties are. The rebuttal: on a high level many want homes that are not surrounded by some homes that clearly show their age.

Last point: held an open house yesterday near Bell rec center. We educate people on the community, amenities, etc. I sent 5 to 7 groups to Bell just yesterday to check out the pools. Pools are the number 1 amenity women and most people want here. Imagine my chagrin when I saw posts on the state of the pool lounges at Bell. Please Mr and Mrs Buyers: go to our flagship center. Gaze upon the splendor of the pool chaises.

The rec centers need to prioritize keeping our public facing areas attractive and inviting. That should be job 1. We have the amenities, can we step up our game?

Also! I hear: we follow social media! What's going on with the budget? Is that why fees are going up? Why are there so many problems? I try to give them a high level education on being over budget and and perceived "debt" or that Sun City " lost money". A budget is a projection of income and expense and a guiderail for management to ensure we stay on track. Sun City is not in debt. Management went over budget however the community is still in a decent cash position.

Anyway, this is a longer than intended report from the front. Also.every year we see homes that were for rent go up for sale. Some are over priced. When mid January rolls around they tend to cancel the listing, pull out the for lease sign, and wait for next year.

My apologies for the length.

 

I can't imagine all of the recent controversy helps draw potential residents into Sun City. Petitions, resignations of Board members, and firing of General Managers doesn't add to a a reputable image. Let's work together rather than split over issues that can be resolved.

 

Agreed. It's the people here that make this community shine. Not shiny houses, not who you were or your net worth. There are the best, most genuine people in this community and that sets us apart.

Alas, if you are one of those people that define your social status through your house or scorn of others looks, fashion, past career, etc. There are plenty of other communities that can help those people fulfill their dreams. I value people. But. The social media complaints do not help and many convey misunderstood false information that pushes others off.

But. During these months, the snowbirds months: we should shine.